Let's Talk Politics

Ep 25: Minority Rule - Carney’s Balancing Act Begins

• Julia Pennella • Season 1 • Episode 24

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The political ground beneath Canada has shifted dramatically. In the wake of a historic federal election that saw both major parties crack 40% of the vote, Prime Minister Mark Carney now leads a Liberal minority government facing extraordinary challenges on multiple fronts.

Stepping into the House of Commons with a freshly appointed cabinet, Carney must immediately navigate Alberta separation threats, tariff pressures from Trump's America, and the delicate dance of leading a parliament where his predecessor's ghost still lingers. His cabinet selections reveal a calculated balance – enough fresh faces to signal change while retaining experienced hands to maintain stability during turbulent times.

Perhaps most fascinating is the generational realignment revealed in voting patterns. The Liberals dominated among older white men– traditionally Conservative territory – while Poilievre's Conservatives captured unprecedented support from millennials and Gen Z voters. This political fluidity, where Canadians cross party lines based on issues rather than tribal loyalty, stands in stark contrast to America's hardening political divisions.

Inside Carney's cabinet, fault lines are already appearing. Environment Minister Stephen Guilbeault's comments about new pipelines contradicts PM Carney's more development-friendly stance. Is this hinting at the tensions that will define this government? Meanwhile, the opposition landscape has transformed with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre losing his own seat and now seeking redemption through an Alberta by-election.

For anyone trying to make sense of today’s volatile political era, political strategist Stephanie Mitton—CEO and Founder of Beacon North Strategies—joins us to unpack the unfolding political drama and share her strategic insights on Canada’s current political landscape.

Whether you lean left or right, understanding perspectives across the political spectrum helps grasp the complexity of issues facing the country. As Carney implements his first priority – a middle-class tax cut by July 1st – the question remains whether this former central banker can translate his financial expertise into political success amid provincial tensions and global economic uncertainty.

Quick heads up this episode was recorded on May 15, 2025 so while the news may have changed since this conversation was recorded the thoughts and ideas still remain relevant. 

Listen now to understand the forces reshaping Canadian politics and what lies ahead in this new parliamentary chapter.

Julia Pennella:

Parliament is back baby and after one of the most intense federal elections in recent memory, with record voter turnout, both major parties cracking 40% of the vote and not one but two party leaders losing their seats, we're diving headfirst into a brand new political chapter in Canada. All eyes are now on Prime Minister Mark Carney. Will he deliver on the promises that got him elected, or will the old Trudeau liberal habits? The Conservatives are already accusing him of sink his momentum before it begins. In the first question period of the session, conservative Party interim leader Andrew Scheer threw some shade at Carney for the delay in releasing a spring federal budget. He quipped that the so-called man with a plan seems to be planning for vacation instead of a fiscal blueprint. The prime minister clapped back that Pierre Polyev, also referring to him as a former member for Carlton, pointed out that Pierre's 100-day plan that he released during the election failed to mention a spring budget. Carney said his government will move immediately on legislation for nation-building projects and a unified Canadian economy. And speaking of shade, the new Member of Parliament for Carleton, bruce Fanjoy, who defeated Conservative leader Pierre Polyev, got a standing ovation before question period and said in his remarks that he'd never take the honour for granted, mirroring his previous comments about Polyev's failures in representing his constituents, conservative leader Pierre Polyev was excluded from Question Period after losing his seat. In a press conference held in the foyer outside the House of Commons chamber before Question Period began, the Conservative leader told reporters he'd love to be in the chamber. Plus, former Environment Minister turned Canadian Culture Minister, stephen Guilbeault, said Canada needs to maximize its use of existing pipelines before building more. All this a day after Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated an openness to new pipeline construction.

Julia Pennella:

Clearly, some drama is already starting around the cabinet table. Joining us to unpack the political landscape is Stephanie Minton, ceo and founder of Beacon North Strategies. Quick heads up this episode was recorded on May 15th 2025. So, while the news may have changed since this conversation was recorded, the thoughts and ideas still remain relevant. So buckle up. The election may be over, but the drama, oh, it is just getting started. Let's Talk Politics with Stephanie Minton. Welcome back to another episode of let's Talk Politics. I have the brilliant Stephanie Minton here. She's a strategist, she's in public affairs and policy and everything to do with government relations, and we're going to be diving into the most recent cabinet picks to the election and everything else in between. So, stephanie, thanks so much for joining us.

Stephanie Mitton:

Thank you for having me.

Julia Pennella:

I'm really looking forward to the conversation and you know, as we just saw, Prime Minister Carney picked his cabinet, so I'm really interested in your take on. How does Carney's cabinet differ from Trudeau's and ones we've seen in the past, maybe?

Stephanie Mitton:

It's very interesting when you think about the politics behind it, because you can tell that Carney really wants people to see that this is different than the Trudeau cabinet. It was interesting I saw a picture posted online and it was the front row of the cabinet, which was Trudeau era cabinet ministers, right, and so we see about half that are new, half that are from the previous government, and I do have to say that, given what's going on in the world, we do need some people in cabinet that have experience, do need some people in cabinet that have experience, and so I think you know Carney maybe got that balance right, but there's no question, of course, that there's lots of folks in there that were connected to Justin Trudeau and part of our leadership.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, well said and I think even it's interesting just seeing the tiered system of it of having the ministers, the secretaries of state and, yeah, to your point, like you need to have some of those senior people in because a lot of them are rookie MPs themselves. So good points. And, you know, are there any minister choices or creation of portfolio files that really stood out to you? I?

Stephanie Mitton:

was really interested to see the AI piece, knowing that we were one of the founders of AI in Canada and something that we celebrate here, and it's great to see that there'll be focus on that. I'm very curious about how that breakdown will work in terms of the actual structural pieces of government. I teach a course on chat, gbt and AI in public affairs and so, yeah, it was definitely something that stood out to me. The other one is how the actual breakdown will happen between Dominique Leblanc and Chrystia Freeland's portfolio. So I mean there were lots of things, but those are two that definitely stood out where I went. How's that going to work? What will that look like? And intriguing.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, for sure, and I think, on the AI piece, I'd love to dive into that more. Like you mentioned, you teach a course, but how are you seeing that being incorporated even more in your work and in government relations more broadly?

Stephanie Mitton:

I think it's really important and I think one of the best pieces of advice I could give to people listening about using AI in public affairs is to leave a tool like ChatGPT open. I own a small business, right, there's not a huge staff to go and ask questions to, but you can just throw in things into chat with GBT and it can be used for many different uses. And I think a lot of time people think about comms, but it's not just comms. For instance, I was doing a presentation and I threw in my presentation and said how long would this take to present this? And it was basically like spot on in terms of the timestamps, and so there's a lot of different ways that you can incorporate that into your work. Whether you're appearing at committee, you know, is your committee speech going to be too long? You can put in questions for committee and say have I forgotten any? That the opposition might ask, and so there's so many different applications for it.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, actually, you know, I never even thought of using it for that tool. Yeah, actually, you know, I never even thought of using it for that tool. So that's great and it makes so much sense, because it's just so freaky how much information that platform holds. And there was a debate of an article I was reading the other day of people arguing like should you mentioned? Like, tell me how long the speech is going to be? What perspectives am I missing for preparation for committee? Those are great, but I noticed a lot of times too when I'm writing things for the podcast, there's some outdated information. Like it says talking about Trump.

Stephanie Mitton:

It says, if Trump becomes president again, I know, yes, yeah, you do have to be really careful in terms of any information you pull, that you ask it to research. I do think that this will get better over time the technology changes so much but to make sure that you double check or you ask for its sources. Or at least in the short term, maybe don't really use it for that purpose, but it will get better.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, for sure, and hopefully, with the minister taking on that file, he dives into those pieces of safety and accurate information. So we'll have to see how that portfolio unfolds, for sure. And as we're still talking about cabinet here, like what do you think Carney's cabinet picks signal? And the reason why I say that, like we brought up the AI portfolio, something we haven't seen before Do you think this is a signal of a shift, of the new Canada, new priorities he's looking at? I'm curious at your take around that. I do think so.

Stephanie Mitton:

We see AI in the platform right, we see them talking about it. We now see it in cabinet. I do think they're looking at it as an area where Canada can show leadership, and we know when Carney talks about what he wants to do with Canada and leadership he wants to do, it's not just one piece, it's not just about building a pipeline, it's about energy across the country, right, it's about AI, it's about these other things that we really want to level up, and so I think you see some of those things reflected and they were very clear For people like us that work in politics. If you follow really closely like every speech that he's given, even the night after he was elected, the platform, you can see these lines right. And, of course, canada, us. We see things like the domestic focus on the economy. There's multiple ministers around that issue that just have different titles, and so we can see those priorities that they've laid out early on really reflected in what's coming out now.

Julia Pennella:

And, to your point, interprovincial trade has been a huge conversation piece provincially, federally. It was a proposal by Carney to get rid of those, I believe by July 1st. And I just want to even point to, like you know, Prime Minister Carney kicked off his new mandate by signing a symbolic order to prioritize tax cut, the middle class tax cut, so we're seeing a little bit of those elements come through from the campaign and to obviously practice right now. So I do want to lean into the middle class tax cut and the target date of it being July 1st. This just broke yesterday. How significant do you think that move is, both symbolically and practically for Canadians?

Stephanie Mitton:

I think it's really important to signal that they're listening to Canadians, and especially because Pierre was known more as the person who was addressing some of those issues for Canadians for so long. And so this allows Carney to move into that space and claim some of that space and say that he's listening and to have you know. So much of what's going to happen going forward is about the broader economy or about the US, and so to have something that's specifically about Canadians. And the other thing is, I've heard a lot of conservatives fairly optimistic about Carney, a lot of conservatives fairly optimistic about Carney, and, of course, some critical and some of that is around. Will he do what he says he's going to do? I think seeing things like that right away you know, the repeal of the carbon tax in legislation, those things will go a long way in terms of him being able to govern for all comedians.

Julia Pennella:

Absolutely Very well said and to your point. Like it's interesting. I think in another world Carney maybe would have been a conservative. I don't know. We'll talk a little bit about how the Conservative Party has shifted, but it just it makes me think of how fluid I think ideas are, what your background is and again, what you're bringing to the table. So really good point as well with the carbon tax and removing that, the promise for the middle class tax cut, because these are things that Pierre talked about.

Julia Pennella:

The Conservatives talked about, rightfully so the Canada is broken message. I wouldn't go as far to say that. You know it resonates with people. Young people can't afford houses. Why are we have this giant landmass, all these amazing minerals and we're not a leader in the world? I get it and I think it really tapped into a lot of issues that people have been feeling and thinking and it's going to be again interesting how it plays out, especially now up here. It doesn't have a seat in the House. We'll get into that, but I want to lean into the election and the Liberals were just shy a couple of votes of majority, but they're still a minority territory. How do you think the Liberals will navigate this version of a minority government, especially with the new cabinet structure in place.

Stephanie Mitton:

I think that's a really good question, juliet. I have to say, when I've been hearing talk about it the last couple days, that he very much intends to govern like it's not a minority, and with authority, and so that will be interesting. That could definitely rub some of the other parties the wrong way, and he's also probably feeling quite good that the other parties are not in a position for an election and they are very weak, and so at least in the short term, I think he will be able to be a little bit more strong armed about some of those things, and we know that some of the parties, even the Conservatives, the Bloc Québécois and the NDB, have signaled willingness to work. But at least in the short term, we don't see any formal agreements happening.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah for sure. And do you think to your point? Maybe not formal agreements. It might be too soon, but who do you think will be the closest ally for the Liberals to partner with if we have to get to that point and especially to get things passed in?

Stephanie Mitton:

the House. We imagine somebody like the Bloc Québécois. We think about the sovereignty conversation that's happening right now and how that would feel to other parts of Canada. Right, and even Pierre this week said if they are issues that we support, we will vote with the government. That's a, you know, completely different change in tone, and so I think that dance party will change. I also think it's possible that we will still see some floor crossing right, Like there's time for that still, and so we don't know exactly what's going to happen.

Julia Pennella:

Ooh, I love that prediction. I was kind of thinking about it too. I was having a conversation with my mom about that, so it should be interesting to see how that plays out.

Stephanie Mitton:

Nothing's impossible in politics, it's just not.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, yeah, it's nothing's impossible and it moves eerily fast with the news. So, very well said, I appreciate that observation and I want to lean a little bit more into the election itself. And, as I mentioned, the Liberals still won the minority. But this election felt very different and this was the first time since 1930 that two major parties both cracked 40% of the vote and third parties got squeezed out. We saw the fall of the NDP. The Bloc Quebecois lost a lot of seats in Quebec. What do you think that tells us about where Canadian politics is maybe headed?

Stephanie Mitton:

If I can say off the top a word of warning to the political folks is, as a student of foreign policy, when I look at what is happening in the States and the divide, I get very concerned about this election and what it means longer term in terms of more a two party situation. I personally don't think that's healthy for Canada. Personally don't think that's healthy for Canada and I think one of our strengths over the years has been having this diversity, with the different parties and the different perspectives and how it's been able to hold some of the views to account, and I think that's really important. Do you think we're going?

Julia Pennella:

maybe towards an American style? Or do you think we'll see a resurgence of agreements or coalitions?

Stephanie Mitton:

I mean, I think time will tell right. I think the Conservatives will certainly hope that the NDP come back strong. We see how that played out in terms of the votes and the seats and the impact of that, and so they need the NDP to do well. We also know that the NDP are in real risk of complete collapse, and so we don't know what that's actually going to look like or how it's going to play out. And of course also the Greens maybe talk bigger than they actually are in Canadian politics, but they do have a presence nationally and they're struggling as well. So I don't think we know, but I would say it's concerning and I hope that we can continue to have a robust number of parties to have a healthy Canadian democracy.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, I think that's what it comes down to, and one of the unique things about Canada and separates us from the US, is that democratic piece of having different voices represented. So really well said.

Stephanie Mitton:

And people change parties when they vote, sometimes right A certain percentage of voters, and we don't necessarily see that in other countries, and I do a lot online, especially on TikTok, related to politics and just some of the division I've seen, you know, over the last year even, and how it continues to get worse in the US is really concerning to me, yeah really well said.

Julia Pennella:

I'll actually lean into that point. This divisiveness we're really seeing. I think social media online fuels that. But to your point I'm interested, like why do you think Canadians are a bit more politically fluid? Because it's very common you can maybe vote a certain way provincially and you're not set to that party Federally. You vote a different way Like and you're not set to that party Federally. You vote a different way Like. I'm just curious from your conversations and your clients why do you think we have that fluidity in Canada?

Stephanie Mitton:

I think in some ways you'd have to do a deep research analysis and maybe do some polling, and maybe somebody like David Coletto can explain this better than me so I can give some antidotes potentially.

Stephanie Mitton:

I think one factor that comes into play is that the provincial and the federal parties are sometimes look different and are shaped different, and their scope along that political spectrum is different, and so I think that comes into play sometimes.

Stephanie Mitton:

I also think, especially more recently in this current election that we just had, when you look at the political spectrum, the liberals moved closer to the middle and then, throughout the election, as criticism was happening with Pierre and the conservatives, they actually moved closer to the center, and so we were at this place. What I was seeing, especially online conversations, was about people not really knowing who to vote for, because a lot of the policies were not the same but more aligned than usual. Some of them were the same and you know, the big messy problems that they both wanted to solve were the same too, and I think that adds a challenge. And also different times of Canadian history we've had multiple parties on different sides of that political spectrum, right, so it's easier for people to go from NDP to liberal or, you know, green to conservative or whatever as well. So those are just some of the dynamics at play.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, really well said, and I think that's really telling when we look at the demographics who voted? Because of where the parties aligned themselves. You know the argument Trudeau went center leftleft, carney is bringing back this older blue business liberal. One of my old professors and guests on the show, eugene Lang, wrote a few really good pieces on that. But with that, I think, comes that demographic shift and who is more interested in the party? So I want to ask you you know this, as we mentioned, election is very notable. Liberals, interestingly, were dominating with seniors, even senior men, while the conservatives made huge gains with millennials, gen Z, the younger generation. What do you make of this new political map and potentially this generational divide for upcoming elections?

Stephanie Mitton:

I guess one thing would be given. You know, Trudeau was elected largely with that youth vote. That again it's fluid, right. That could change, Circumstances change, so it doesn't mean that's where we are necessarily going forward, but it is a shift even in terms of the student vote that they do across the country with the students. David Clutto was involved in that and they voted for the conservatives. I would suspect that's one of the first times that that's actually happened, right, and so you walk into a room with conservatives and it's full of young people, especially young men, and then, as you mentioned, lots of gray hair at the Kearney events, and so it is a big change. But that doesn't necessarily mean it will stay. I think it has a lot to do with the leaders and the issues they chose and the time that we're currently in.

Julia Pennella:

It's a lot of themes in my conversations is who can meet. The moment now, and I think that's really telling to the situation we're in, more notably as well with Trump and Carney's first interaction and how that played out. A lot of Canadians voted for him to go, notably as well with Trump and Carney's first interaction and how that played out. A lot of Canadians voted for him to go head to head with Trump and it seemed to go as well as it could have been. But you know, I want to lean into Pierre Polyev and he really credit where credit's due. He was able to cultivate that young person vote as we talked about at the beginning as well, like understand what the issues are and speak to Canadians.

Julia Pennella:

But it didn't land. It didn't play out for him, unfortunately, I think. The party they did win a bunch of the popular vote in addition with the Liberals, but Pierre Polyev lost his seat and now he does plan to run in a by-election in Alberta. He'll have to wait for Prime Minister Carney to call that for him. But all this to say what kind of message does that send when a party leader can't even hold on to their own seat in the riding? Like, do you think that shakes the public confidence for their voter base, I mean perhaps in shorter term, kind of for the broader public.

Stephanie Mitton:

I'm not sure about the voter base, because I think a lot of them see that there were some interesting dynamics there. Right, we had, you know, all those additional names on the ballot. We saw changes in the writing structure. There was lots of things at play for that writing and I think a lot of people were actually paying attention to those kinds of dynamics. So I think there's that situation. I think more broadly, of course, like a leader not being elected is concerning. However, we also know that people's minds around politics is short and sometimes it is shocking People that come back. We look at what happened with the premier of Alberta, daniel Smith. Given what happened to her previously, I would suggest it's a bit surprising that we now see her as the premier and so people quickly forget.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, and I think that's the impact of social media before a lot of people would just dominate for weeks on time. And I can't remember which show it was it might have been the West Wing but this conversation of OK, is it a 48 hour news story, a 24 hour news story, a week long news story? And yeah, to your point, I think people might forget that Pierre was not actually from Alberta. Well, he's from Alberta. That helps, right, like it does help. Yes, yeah, absolutely, and I think that local connection is huge. I spoke to someone from Newfoundland and Labrador and why that local candidate perspective matters. So, absolutely, he's not entirely foreign to Alberta and the needs of the folks out there.

Julia Pennella:

But yeah, coming from Ottawa, holding that seat for 20 years, it's going to be a little shake up. But you know, I want to lean into that a little bit further. The Conservatives were ahead in the polls a few months ago and really disappointingly delivered on this election. They blew a 25 point lead. What do you think is to blame for that? Is it Pierre Polyev himself, the leader, or do you think it's the party and the strategist behind as a whole?

Stephanie Mitton:

I think we know that for Pierre, he's really engaged in all that strategy and stuff too right, and so maybe it's difficult to separate those two. I think you've seen a lot of public criticism about ways maybe they could have shifted. Would it have made a difference? You know, we will never know, but we do know. Shortly before, in a similar environment, ford did get elected by pivoting more the way Carney did. So that perspective is valid to kind of think about what would have changed things there.

Stephanie Mitton:

But I do think we can't underestimate the Trump factor, right, and what happened and the timing, and certainly what I was seeing from a lot of Canadians was concerns about what was happening in the States and that Pierre, from their perspective, what if he could be like Trump and that was driving a lot of people's votes that had nothing to do with Pierre dropping the numbers. It had more to do with Trump. I think, yes, that means maybe Pierre could have adjusted his approach, maybe a little bit more. But when you really look at the two of them you know of course maybe some of the taglines and stuff were reminiscent of each other, but Pierre did not put forward a platform or actions that were similar to Trump in many ways Right, and so I think people weren't were concerned about where some of those things could go and that that really impacted things and there's only so much the conservatives could have done to control that.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, I mean I take your points. I would argue a little bit too. I think it was less about the platform and his mannerisms. That maybe people felt like was Trump, like you know we can point to from the beginning of his team putting in misogynistic tags on some of their videos. You know he was kind of patronizing a reporter about crowd sizes videos. You know he was kind of patronizing a reporter about crowd sizes. I think there were these little bits of Pierre that I don't think is really truly him. I think he was feeding into his face. I don't know, I don't know him personally. I've seen him a little bit in the house but you know, I even think back of that interview with the apple and he's eating the apple and he's like what playbook am I? Yeah?

Stephanie Mitton:

well, it's interesting but, julie, again it does come back to that Trump effect. It doesn't mean that Pierre shouldn't have done things differently, but before that was working for Pierre, all of a sudden Trump comes in. That doesn't work anymore, right? So, like, regardless of whether Pierre could have adjusted, trump is still the changing factor in many ways. I mean you'd have to look at the data and do the full research, but I, just when we look about even like Carney becoming prime minister and what was happening at the time, justin Trudeau couldn't have won that election, like it was about who was best to deal with Trump in many ways, had the issue set have changed over time.

Stephanie Mitton:

Let's say the election was longer, maybe Carney wouldn't be prime minister today, right, like it was fairly close. And when you talk about both being over 40 percent and also, as we saw over time and we'll probably talk about this tomorrow I have to see how he does in the house. Carney does have some weaknesses and we weren't able to see very many of them in the campaign, but in a different context that could have looked different, and so there's just so much about this particular context that was so unique. I'm sure it will be studied by political scientists for decades.

Stephanie Mitton:

Absolutely, I think again the criticism comes to, even though Trump was the factor, there should have been that pivot and it was just way too late. I don't disagree that you know it's worth an effort anyways, right, but I think at that point it was unfortunately they were too late. I don't disagree, it's worth an effort anyways, right, but I think at that point it was unfortunately they were too late.

Julia Pennella:

Parliament's going to be coming back on May 26. And Carney's no ordinary rookie. He does have his background of managing two central banks global economic resume, but politics is a different beast. What do you think will be his biggest learning curve as the prime minister?

Stephanie Mitton:

I think one of his not just learning curves but challenges will be how quickly he wants to move things. I think it's great to see. I think most Canadians, and especially business people, would be like, yes, we should be moving some of these big things quickly, but the public service doesn't move that fast, right, and even some of the staffers won't be used to moving as quickly as Carney is signaling that he wants to move, and I think that will be a challenge for him to deal with and probably frustrating as well, right. And then I think the other be a challenge for him to deal with and probably frustrating as well, right. So, and then I think the other piece is how he works with the sovereignty issue and the Western alienation piece, and some of those things can take time, and his ability to balance some of those different perspectives, especially within the party, while addressing some of the big risks on the outside, like Daniel Smith, is something he is going to have to navigate. That will be very challenging for him.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, really well said. I appreciate you bringing that up because that's been definitely exploding in the news scene on my feed. I'm curious, like Carney obviously has all these factors being thrown at him. He's got tariffs, he's got Western alienation and the threat of separatism. Affordability is huge, obviously, you know there was that signal to that by doing that tax cut. But what do you think between these three issues he'll have to tackle first? I mean, politics is a juggling act. You kind of have to work while the other balls are up in the air. But yeah, I'm just curious, what do you think might be a strategic approach, maybe on tackling which issue first?

Stephanie Mitton:

Well, I mean, he's already said he's going to do the finance piece immediately, and that's not the whole story. That's just a little bit. I think the way he's positioned himself, he's going to have to move all of them. We also hear, from what Carney shares, that what is happening in the US could be quite longer term. As they figure that out. That will take a bit of space, and so the issue with the provinces in terms of sovereignty, but also the adjustments to the economy, help us deal with what's happening in the States, and so I think that becomes one of the most immediate pieces that he has to get right for the country and for Canadians.

Julia Pennella:

And going back to just the first part of our conversation, how he mobilizes those ministers will also be really interesting to help him Because, you know, politics is the team. Sport it's a hockey team. He advertised and campaigned on elbows up and hockey. So it should be really interesting to how he moves those players around, because he can't do it all.

Stephanie Mitton:

he can to an extent, but you know, yeah just if if I can add julia, I think we're already seeing some interesting dynamics around that, because when carney named the cabinet, he said specifically I want a return to cabinet government right, which means less power and centralization and direction from the center, which, given his extremely ambitious agenda, is probably required. However, what we saw yesterday was actually some early problems with some of the ministers in terms of issues. So, for instance, we saw Guilbault talking about oil and not wanting to build new pipelines, which is different than what Carney said just the other day, right. And so we're already starting to see that we're seeing some cracks on the housing side and differences of opinion, and so it will be interesting to see even how he navigates those people, because he does need these people leading. And yet we can also see and maybe this is a lesson he'll learn early on why often in political situations that power and control does become so centralized, and we already saw an example of that yesterday.

Julia Pennella:

Excellent point. That is excellent observation. So I appreciate you bringing that up and I've worked in government, I've worked under government, I've worked under the Trudeau government and yeah, you very much saw that centralization. Everything had to be run through PMO and you can't run policy through the prime minister's office. It just doesn't work. There's a reason why ministers are being appointed to those files because they're supposed to be in charge of them. And it's interesting to your point. I think Carney, if we want to look back at what is he going to have to navigate as PM, is understanding these different personalities but like to give both points. Everyone has publicly known where he stands on oil and gas. I mean it's no surprise as well that he shifted from the environment file. But yeah, there's going to be that personality navigation he's going to have to work through.

Stephanie Mitton:

Right, and when you've got somebody like Smith on the other side, that was a huge problem. So I actually will be very curious to see how that's navigated.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, we'll have to keep an eye on the news for sure, especially because we've also seen in the last week there's been some protests on support for referendum and separation of the legislator. We also had an Alberta separatist group propose a referendum question. So really I mean at the same time history, always the saying is. History doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes and unfortunately this has been building up.

Stephanie Mitton:

It's not an overnight thing that has happened no, and this is also why Kearney getting this early piece right in terms of the provinces, in terms of Alberta and the west and what happened with Kibo, is so problematic, because they're trying to give him the benefit of the doubt, or at least they say they are, which remains to be seen, but it is moving really quickly and so he's got to get this right quickly. It is a dynamic situation and, as we've seen over the last couple of years, anything is possible in politics. Nothing is surprising and things can happen really quickly, and so what's happening now is really important and he's going to have to show leadership on that.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, well said. And politics very much, I think, is way more reactive these days than being as proactive as they can be. How have you been supporting your clients through this economic and political turbulence?

Stephanie Mitton:

I've been doing a lot of education around keeping them informed of how things work, like what is prorogation? What does that mean for you? What are the challenges, what are some of the opportunities that we're seeing within, what's happening and advice about how to navigate it. And I think one of the things that I've been most passionate about, which is probably boring to most people, is what is that broader context? What are the big messy problems that the government is trying to solve right now? How does what's happening in the US impact what's happening domestically?

Stephanie Mitton:

We think about the government's agenda, which can be changed in one tweet from this American president, and that also means being smart about when not to engage in government because of some of the major problems that they're dealing with, and so I always am saying to clients you might think that this is a bird's eye view and stuff you don't necessarily need to know, but we are in a unique time where foreign affairs and government foreign issues is really impacting government decisions. We're dealing with big national messy problems and agendas and you need to figure out where you fit within and agendas and you need to figure out where you fit within that, and so you need to understand it. And so even when I say to you this is what's happening in the US, you might think, oh, like, maybe that's not really like integral to my file. It actually is. It's everything, and so that's an area where I've been really doing a lot of work with clients to help them understand what's going on and how it impacts their issues.

Stephanie Mitton:

Yeah, well said, and it's really a domino effect. Right, and education piece is something I'm really passionate about. So if you are on the newsletter, in particular following us on social like, we do give free downloads about things like this. Sometimes we give tips about different resources that you might not know exist, and so, yeah, it's definitely part of the DNA of my firm. So if you're interested in that, you can follow along for some free stuff.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, that's great, and that's Beacon North Strategies that's based out in Ottawa. As we're just wrapping up here, Stephanie, I do want to ask you some folks are calling this maybe one of the most volatile political eras in decades. What do you think Canadians should be bracing for next?

Stephanie Mitton:

I think it's really challenging because we don't know what else could happen right, and so in some ways I think, just for our own sanity, we need to trust that decision makers are making the best decisions they can with the information they have at the time and that we have capable, strong people in those roles. And it's challenging because we also don't know everything that decision makers know, because they can't share, and especially with the US president really paying attention we know he watched our debate, like what people say here, and so they have to be really, really careful, and so that's challenging, challenging, and so we will be in a time of uncertainty. I think it's important to get your information from reputable sources and you know it's not perfect and if you're on a different side of the political spectrum it will be challenging but to do your best to trust that we have smart people in the room and because otherwise I think we'll just go insane.

Julia Pennella:

But I think as well, just like leaning into people like yourself and understanding what is actually going on in government, whether it's subscribing to your organization to get those newsletters I learned so much just following different people, their journalists or pollsters, whatever it is to get those different resources, and then you can make your own critical analysis, If I can just add to that, julia.

Stephanie Mitton:

I think it's so important and I'm pretty passionate about this that people don't just listen to their own echo chamber.

Stephanie Mitton:

Make sure you're listening to different kinds of journalists, to different kinds of papers, ones you maybe even disagree with, because understanding the other side's perspective can be so helpful and get a better sense of like why people feel the way they do, or to break down some of those divides and you don't have to agree with what's happening on the other side of the political spectrum.

Stephanie Mitton:

Sometimes I'll hear people say, oh, the media is so hard on Pierre, but they're not on Carney. I'm I'm like well, I listen to all the press conferences and if you listen to that interview with Vashi, she was very hard on him, just like she is on any politician. But if you're just listening to your own chamber, you don't get that breadth of information, and I think it's really important and that people need to really watch out for that. And, as somebody who does follow all of those perspectives, when I speak to people, it is fascinating. You know what their algorithm looks like with some of the comments that they share, and it really shows, unfortunately, an uninformed opinion about the facts, and I see that across the political spectrum.

Julia Pennella:

Very well said. 100% agree with you too. It's so important to get those different perspectives and understand where they're coming from. Like you said, you don't have to agree, but understanding and being part of that dialogue, I think, is just so critical in itself. So very well said and that was, I think, just an excellent way to end it. So that was Stephanie Minton. She is the CEO and founder of Beacon North Strategies. Stephanie, any other closing thoughts you want to share with the listeners?

Stephanie Mitton:

I guess I would just reinforce what I said about the political spectrum and who you're listening to. I just want to add another example. When we think about social issues, when you look on the left, the left wants to invest in those issues with government money, and on the right, they want to see less money going to government so people can pay for those things themselves, and so it's not actually that overall value of taking care of people is different. It's there, but they want to address this issue differently. And so I think unpacking some of that is really important for people. And yeah, just you know, stay informed, like you shared, julia, and listen to PyPest like yours. These are really important for those conversations for folks, and so thank you for the work that you're doing.

Julia Pennella:

Oh no, thank you so much for your time and your intel of where you think the pulse is right now politically and I really appreciate you ending on that point. And I thought it was really interesting when Carney launched his campaign. One of the things he said was the left often thinks that we can redistribute wealth, but you can't redistribute wealth that you don't have. So smirging of ideas again, it's going to be a wild political ride. We'd love to ask Stephanie as this unfolds and we could talk about it more. But lovely conversation, very insightful, and that was Stephanie Minton. She's the CEO and founder of Beacon North Strategies and be sure to tune in for my next special guest next week and I'm your host, julia Piniella. And that was let's Talk Politics. We'll catch you there.