Let's Talk Politics

Ep 23: Western Alienation - Is Alberta's Separation Threat Real?

• Julia Pennella • Season 1 • Episode 23

Share episode

Send us a text

Western alienation and Alberta separatism take center stage as Dan Arnold, Chief Strategy Officer at Pollara Strategic Insights breaks down the complex dynamics fueling separatist sentiment in Canada's oil-rich province.

Political influencers like Preston Manning have significantly amplified separatist messaging, claiming "a vote for Carney liberals is basically a vote for the breakup of Canada." Arnold explains how public opinion follows political leadership, potentially growing separatist support from 20% to 30%, though likely not enough to win a referendum. The conversation explores an Alberta separatist group's proposed referendum question and the contradictions in their platform—wanting independence while maintaining Canadian benefits like pensions and passports.

The digital media landscape plays a critical role in this movement, with alternative media creating echo chambers that reinforce grievance narratives. Arnold provides fascinating insights into modern polling methodology, explaining how researchers don't just measure baseline support but identify which messages might change opinions and which spokespeople would be most effective in referendum campaigns.

Data collection has evolved dramatically, moving from telephone surveys to sophisticated online platforms that test visual elements and measure reactions to different scenarios. This technological advancement helps researchers understand younger demographics who consume political information through entirely different channels than previous generations.

Drawing from his experience teaching political management at Carleton University, Arnold emphasizes how understanding the fundamental "ballot question" driving voter decisions remains essential to political success. The recent Liberal victory demonstrates how quickly fortunes can shift when voter priorities change from cost of living concerns to fears about Trump-style politics.

Want to understand what drives Western discontent? This episode offers unique insights into the data behind the headlines and why timing and messaging matter more than ever in Canadian politics. Subscribe now to continue exploring the forces shaping our political landscape.

Quick heads up: This episode was recorded on May 18, 2025, so while some headlines may have changed since this conversation was recorded, the insights still remain relevant. 

Subscribe now to continue exploring the forces shaping our political landscape.


Julia Pennella:

Welcome back to let's Talk Politics. Before we dive into today's episode, let's catch you up on some of the latest headlines making news. In the first question period of the new session, conservative interim leader Andrew Scheer threw some pointed shade at Prime Minister Mark Carney for failing to table a spring budget, joking that the so-called man with a plan seems more focused on planning his summer vacation than a fiscal strategy. Prime Minister Carney fired back, reminding the House that Pierre Polyev's much-touted 100-day plan referenced with a not-so-subtle jab. As the former member for Carleton also failed to mention any spring budget, carney insisted his government will move immediately on legislation tied to nation-building projects and a more unified Canadian economy. But the drama doesn't stop there. Pipelines and middle-class tax cuts took centre stage as the opposition pressed the government during question period. This came on the heels of some mixed messaging from former Environment Minister, now Cultural Minister, during question period. This came on the heels of some mixed messaging from former Environment Minister, now Cultural Minister, stephen Guilbeault, who recently said Canada should focus on maximizing existing pipelines rather than building new ones. The comment likely added fuel to the fire, especially amid growing separatist sentiment in Alberta, where the oil and gas industry is central to the province's economy. Meanwhile, alberta's Premier, daniel Smith, says she's encouraged by Prime Minister Mark Carney's shift in tone on energy policy following Monday's First Ministers' meeting in Saskatoon. The gathering brought Prime Minister Carney and all 13 premiers together to talk fast-tracking, nation-building infrastructure and dismantling internal trade barriers. Carney even hinted at real potential for a new oil pipeline. Premier Smith, who's been vocal about her demands like repealing Bill C-69 and lifting the emissions cap, says discussions are ongoing. And lifting the emissions cap, says discussions are ongoing. And speaking of internal trade, ontario has now signed deals with six provinces, including Alberta and PEI, to break down interprovincial trade barriers and unlock free trade Agreements with Nova Scotia, new Brunswick, manitoba and Saskatchewan are also in place, making this a major push to grow provincial economies amidst the backdrop of looming US tariffs and a recession. To unpack what all of this means and give us a Western perspective, joining us again is Dan Arnold, chief Strategy Officer at Polaris Strategic Insights.

Julia Pennella:

In this episode we dive headfirst into the factors fueling Western alienation and Alberta separatism, what a referendum could look like and what the data reveals about this growing sentiment. Quick heads up this episode was recorded on May 18, 2025. So, while some headlines may have changed since this conversation was recorded. The ideas and thoughts still remain relevant. So let's talk politics with Dan Arnold I want to lean into. Daniel Smith's been a very vocal advocate about what's been happening with Western alienation and not feeling heard at the Fed level. And you know, it's not just fringe voices amplifying these messages. We also have columnist Rick Bell and even Preston Manning have all suggested that another liberal government is going to be pushing the West closer to succession. The West closer to succession. How much influence do you think these voices have on that public sentiment, in addition to all that noise?

Dan Arnold:

that we're seeing on social media. Yeah, I think people often do take their cues from political leaders. You'll see this sometimes in polling, where in the states, for example, which is very polarized, where Republicans are all for free trade and then Donald Trump says I hate free trade and suddenly Republicans are all against free trade and you see the lines kind of cross there and on many issues that happens where a party leader kind of puts a position down and then people sort of follow because that becomes you know what I guess is good because the person I like says this right. So if you have a lot of conservative leaders in Alberta be they former leaders or current leaders giving credence to this idea of separatism, I think support will probably grow from it. It probably won't grow to the point where it actually is winning a referendum, but it could grow from 20% to 30%. It may already have, based on some other polling that's out there.

Dan Arnold:

So, yeah, I think that's very dangerous for people like Preston Manning to be talking about separatism, especially when it's like and he's not really making an argument about the benefits of an Alberta country, he's making more an argument of like I'm upset because the country is not electing the party that I like and there are lots of people who don't vote for the party that's in power. But that's our system right, and I think it's always better to kind of work constructively with governments. A lot of premiers have been able to do that. Even Brad Wall signed a lot of agreements with Trudeau. I remember back in the first couple of years of the Trudeau administration around pensions and other things. So I think there are ways to approach this that are more constructive. And then you have the Preston Manning approach, which I think is a lot less constructive and is really just sort of riling people up. And yeah, I think it certainly will have an impact, because people do take their cues from people that they see as leaders.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, and do you think, given what we've been seeing in the US, do you think there's a bit of a spillover of, maybe some of the tactics of rallying up bases or beliefs when it comes to certain issues? Do you think that's being impacted more? And I really point to social media. I think seeing these influencers, the Joe Rogans, all these kind of people who are being a bit more politically involved and again rallying up bases, Do you think that's spilling over here and that those mannerisms yeah, maybe.

Dan Arnold:

I mean, it's certainly as we've talked about already there's people are getting their media from different sources and someone like a Joe Rogan is probably more influential than, or at least as influential as, the Mike Wallace or the nightly newscaster. So, yeah, I think there is a right wing media ecosystem in Canada If you look at kind of the you know, the rebel media crowd and some of the spinoff publications there that do feed into a lot of these quasi conspiracy theory stories, and I think that that does create a bit of an echo chamber that can really give people a perspective that is very different from what they're getting from the mainstream media. So, yeah, I think that kind of like right wing online echo chamber, alternative media, whatever you want to call it is fueling a lot of the things we're talking about here.

Julia Pennella:

And you know, as we're talking about these echo chambers, earlier this week an Alberta separatist group released the proposed referendum question on sovereignty from Canada, saying they plan to pressure Premier Daniel Smith for a vote as early as this year if they can gather enough support. And the question that they have proposed to the public is I'm going to read it out here, quote do you agree that the province shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada? End quote. What do you make of that wording? It feels to me very calculated, almost like it's designed to echo that right-wing rhetoric we've been seeing across social media and some alternative media platforms that we just mentioned. But you know, is that intentional framing in your view?

Dan Arnold:

I don't know. I mean, to some extent I actually would say it's not a unfair question. If you go look back to like the 95 referendum question in Quebec, it was like a five paragraph question about associations. I don't think they mentioned the word independence one point in it there, so it's a very convoluted question. Donald's trick people into um, you know, thinking you could keep the benefits of Canada and be another country at the same time, whereas this is pretty direct, like if I was wearing a bowling question. I don't know if I read it that differently from what they said there, so I'll give them credit to that.

Dan Arnold:

And I did read an article, though with the same group, and they were talking about like what we keep the canadian pension and passports, and so I think they are still trying to have a bit of the cake. You needed to, a thing you often see from the quebec separatist movement, I I don't think they would necessarily have access to the Canadian dollar or Canadian passports. I found it quite funny that they were talking about keeping the Canada pension plan at a time when Daniel Smith is talking about an Alberta pension plan. So her Alberta pension plan is so unpopular even the other separatists still want to touch it, which I got a bit of a kick out of.

Dan Arnold:

But yeah, I think, look, as we get actually into an actual referendum, if we go down that road, some of these other questions are going to come into focus a bit more in terms of what this actually means. I think you know from a polling perspective now it's easy to say, yeah, of course I'd vote for separatism as just a bit of an FU to Ottawa. But if you actually sort of think this through in terms of the consequences and what being a landlocked country would mean and I don't think that's going to help oil get to markets necessarily so there's a few consequences that are easy to kind of gloss over on a poll as opposed to when you're actually voting in the ballot box. And if we get into a campaign, I think some of those things will come into a bit more focus.

Julia Pennella:

All interesting points and, yeah, I think it's funny that there seems to be a bit of disconnect between maybe what the base wants, of what this idea of sovereignty and separatism looks like, versus what the leader is also proposing. There's, even, under Kenny, been that push for an Alberta focused pension plan. There was a vote on that and it didn't go through to see how much of this is just striking while the iron's hot and a lot of people's anxieties and maybe frustrations at this point to what are the future implications of our decisions today. So all really interesting stuff. I want to focus a little bit more on polling, if you can share a little bit like what does that look like when you are trying to select this data from whatever the issue that you're focusing on? Let's talk about separatism, for example what kind of data or demographics, pinpoints, questions do you ask to start to collect that information and maybe make a theory based off of what people are responding to, whatever the issue is?

Dan Arnold:

Yeah, let's take this issue around Alberta separatism as a case study. I guess to talk about this.

Dan Arnold:

And yeah like I think you'll see a lot of polls. In the newspaper they'll be just saying X percent of Albertans want to separate, which is very similar to what you see in election campaign. You see horse race polls, but you know, for those polls, when you're doing it for a political party, you're asking a lot of other questions about leadership, impressions and what's driving the vote and messages that could change that, and it'd be a very similar situation here. So if I was doing polling for a group trying to keep Canada together, for example, like I'd be looking a lot more at what's driving those sentiments as opposed to just figuring out what the number is. Is it 20%, 30% who support separatism? It's not as important as figuring out, like, why they are in that position and what could actually change those opinions, right? So you'd be probably testing different messages around identity, independence, grievances, arguments we just talked about about again, like being landlocked and access to passports and things like that, and you'd be looking to see which of those messages actually change opinions and drive support up or down for independence. As a result of those messages you can, you know, on an online survey you can show people kind of an ad or a message and then test their opinion afterwards and you can actually measure if it goes up or down as a result of that. So that's what I'd be looking to do at this stage and you can use that in surveys.

Dan Arnold:

You can also sit people down in a focus group and kind of like again, talk them through the issue and sort of understand better where they're coming from. Is this being driven by feelings of grievances? Is it just because there's a liberal in power? So these are all things you could do. You could also test, I guess, spokespeople that are trusted. Like is what Preston Manning says influential to people?

Dan Arnold:

And if you're kind of putting together a Canada no campaign, like, who's the spokesperson on that? Is it Nahed Menchi? Is it Jason Kenney? Like, who are the people that you want to be talking? It might not be Mark Carney, who you want to be leading the pro-Canada side of this referendum, if it gets there. So these are all things that you definitely would be testing behind the scenes, and maybe these aren't all things that come out for media polls, but you know, just as you're, when you're pulling for political campaigns, there's a lot more research that goes into it and it's usually to figure out, like, why people feel the way they do, and what you can do to change their feelings.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah for sure. And I appreciate a little bit more of that breakdown because I think we always see these polling data and news and don't understand necessarily the behind the scenes of where does this actually come from, what are the questions, and we just kind of see that final product. And going back to Preston Manning, he went as far as to say during the campaign, a vote for Carney liberals is basically a vote for the breakup of Canada. So really interesting to see that rhetoric out in the public sphere. And as we're talking about data, I'm also curious, like have you seen the data collection space evolve over the last few years, whether it is in the political realm and people's responses and interactions with politicians and political news? Like, have you seen an evolution? Is there anything that you think is foreshadowing now as well with AI, what that might look like with involvement in political rhetoric or discourse? I know it's a bit of a big question, but I'm just curious have you seen any trends at all?

Dan Arnold:

Yeah, it's an interesting topic that I'm sure we could talk a lot about and actually we have to some extent in terms of talking about some of these alternative media, social media, places where people are getting their news from you know.

Dan Arnold:

From a like data collection politics perspective, I think polling has moved from being kind of traditional telephone surveys to doing more things with, you know, text to web and online surveys, which are kind of interesting because you can test visuals and and images and you can test videos and do a lot more stuff that's interactive that you can't do on a phone survey.

Dan Arnold:

So I'd say, like, just myself, in terms of as a researcher, in terms of data collection, I've done a lot more of that than I did when I first started in the industry and when I was doing polling for Trudeau, we would test images of him in different situations to see what are the situations people respond to, positively or negatively, which, again, you can't do in a telephone survey. You can't be on the phone and say, like, imagine Justin Trudeau standing at a podium versus imagine him giving a selfie with someone. So, you know, I think that opens up some opportunities and, more broadly, I think, just again, not that well in a lot of these sentiment analysis and social media scrapings, and if somebody could do that really well in terms of just sort of representing that conversation that's happening online, I think there's a lot of value that comes from that too.

Julia Pennella:

Yeah, good points, and I think it goes back to our first part of this conversation about the interaction between Kari and Trump and the body language. Like those things I think make a factor of, like you said, not a simple black and white of yes no, I felt like it went well, but a lot of other, I think, behind the scenes and factors at play. But as we're talking about data, I also want to point to how Polaro launched a new tool to track consumer spending patterns and it's being called a permanent line of sight into how Canadians are feeling when it comes to spending finances, cost of living, job security and even politics. When it comes to spending finances, cost of living, job security and even politics, can you break that down for us, what this tool actually does and why it's important maybe for businesses to have this kind of access to data? And, on that note too, like, once they have that data, what's the end game? How should they be using it?

Dan Arnold:

We've talked a lot about, I guess, how political parties use polling and research. This is more of a corporate tool and you know businesses and organizations need data. For the same reasons the politicians do right, Because things are changing very rapidly, especially given tariffs. That's having a big impact on consumer habits and by Canadian and I think if you're an organization, just as political parties, need to kind of keep up to date on what public opinion is saying and how it's moving.

Dan Arnold:

It's very helpful for a big company to have a sense of like how is our reputation going up and down, say, how are Canadians economic outlooks, how are their consumer habits, buying patterns in different sectors changing, in addition to measuring reputation for companies and some of their competitors. So you can get a bit of a monthly snapshot in terms of how things are moving so that you're just not having any blind spots in terms of how things are changing. And obviously, if you see a big change, then you can you can do more research and figure out what's kind of driving it. But I think it's a good monitoring tool Only $1,000 a month and we'll throw in a sham wow if you sign up now. That's my pitch. But ultimately, yeah, I think it's a good example of how businesses need to use data. The same way, political parties need to use data, because you're both situations trying to figure out what people think and how they're responding to external pressures, and there's a lot of external pressures these days that are changing public opinion.

Julia Pennella:

For sure, and I'm curious too. I don't know if this is an ethical question or philosophical, but like what piece do you think data plays in today's economy? Because I feel like to an extent it's almost a currency, because if you can see the data, see how people are interacting, you could make more money off of it or push whatever message you're trying to do. I'm curious do you think that this is going to be a continued trend? Because we look as well at like Meta they're basically a data mill Tesla, all these things it's data they're capturing to improve their products or sell other products.

Dan Arnold:

So I'm curious, like in the grand scheme of things, of where that plays into, whether it's our economy or that consumer behavior piece. Yeah, I guess it's the same reason. Like, political parties benefit from knowing who are their target voters and what messages their target voters will respond to vote for them. And if you're selling French fries, it's good for you to know who wants to buy French fries and what about my French fries they like. They don't like to let someone else's French fries. It's the exact same thing as politics.

Dan Arnold:

So having data that gives you insights into who your target universe is, be they consumers or voters or whatever, is a big value, because then you can make data-driven decisions and you can actually like custom tailor a message that is responsive to the needs of the people that you're trying to reach and not responsive to people who will never buy your product or never vote for you. So, yeah, I think it's not that different in terms of like polling in the corporate space compared to the political space, and having data in the corporate space and like in the political space, it's a big advantage.

Julia Pennella:

And one of my last questions here I want to point to, in addition to all this great work you've done for political parties and, as well, data polling for Polara. Since September 2022, you've been teaching the elections campaign course at Carleton's political management program and you cover everything from strategy and communications to public opinion research and GOTV. Go out to vote. Are you seeing any trends or insights into how students are viewing the political landscape today? Are you seeing any trends?

Dan Arnold:

or insights into how students are viewing the political landscape today. Yeah, this has been a really fun thing to do since leaving government teaching the campaigns course with the MPM program, which is a great program, and a lot of people who've gone through that program have gone on to have very successful careers as chiefs of staff and in government or GR firms. I think there's one alumni who's actually a member of parliament right now. One of my students actually ran in Winnipeg Centre in the last federal election actually came very close to getting elected. So it's a great program that gives a bit of that background for what politics is all about and gives you a bit of that manual for politics which is not really there in most situations. You kind of go into these jobs or these roles and you're just sort of figuring things out as they go along.

Dan Arnold:

So it's been fun and I think from my perspective like we talked earlier in this conversation about young people getting their information from very different sources than older people and I don't consider myself an old person yet, but I'm certainly not a 20-year-old in terms of being up to speed in terms of how they're viewing politics and processing politics and I'm still working on campaigns. I did polling for the New Brunswick Liberals and the Saskatchewan NDP in the fall and I personally find it really useful to kind of have that line of sight into how younger people are thinking and looking at politics, and from my perspective it's a nice way to sort of stay in touch, though I'm always saddened that they don't get my West Wing references because it's now a show of 30 years ago that nobody has seen. But nevertheless a great program and I've really enjoyed teaching during the last couple years.

Julia Pennella:

Oh, that's so great and I'm glad to hear because I think it's really important. Like you said, it is a manual because once you get actually into behind the scenes of politics in the minister's offices, it's like the Wild West out there of learning on the job and learning all these processes, how a minister reacts and all these like really fun things that you definitely learn on the job.

Dan Arnold:

Yeah, I mean, after the 2015 election I went into the prime minister's office as a director in the prime minister's office and even when I was on the job for like almost a year, people would be like, oh, the MC is so and so I don't even know what an MC is, or like what the process is for like how everything moves in government.

Julia Pennella:

So yeah, I think it's great to give people that grounding no-transcript.

Dan Arnold:

Three months have been, but I think you know one thing that the last three months have taught us is something that I actually have always really brought up in the MPM course with students.

Dan Arnold:

There is that the ballot question is the thing that really drives elections at the end of the day, and we do a lot of exercises around this and talking about how you can kind of change ballot questions and how that changes people's thought processes. And I think a year ago, had there been a federal election, the ballot question would have been cost of living change like things that would not have been beneficial for the liberals, which is why the conservatives were up 25 points, whatever it was in the polls. But the ballot question shifted to Trump this year and we saw the results of that right and obviously other factors and Carney coming in and everything made a big difference too. But I think it's a good reminder that you need to understand what people are basing their vote on when they go to the ballot box and if that overriding ballot question, that the overriding thing, changes, that can really change the political landscape in very dramatic ways. So the last couple months have been a very good case study that I will talk about in the fall with my students, I'm sure.

Julia Pennella:

Absolutely, I think, even just to the most recent liberal win in a riding in Quebec, by winning just one vote, I think really goes to show just how tight this election was and, to your point, how fast politics moves when it comes to the issues. What voters are looking at. We can even look at Ontario, with Doug Ford calling that snap election.

Julia Pennella:

The timing is so critical when it comes to political issues and striking while the iron's hot and seeing what people are going to come out for and what motivates them. So all really good points. We definitely did cover a big spectrum of things. So, dan, I want to thank you so much for your insights. That was Dan Arnold, chief Strategy Officer at Polara, and he was joining us on let's Talk Politics. So thanks so much for tuning in, dan, thanks so much for your insights and please tune in to hear from my next special guest. We'll catch you there.