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Let's Talk Politics
Ep 19: From the Rock to the 905 - Political Shifts Across Canada’s Electoral Battlegrounds
The political landscape of Canada underwent a seismic shift in the 2025 federal election, with dramatic changes from Newfoundland and Labrador to Southwestern Ontario. From historic nail-biters to unexpected flips, this episode takes you behind the curtain of a transformative campaign.
Pierce Collier, a seasoned Liberal strategist with deep roots in Newfoundland and Labrador, walks us through the remarkable story of Terranova's 12-vote margin – likely the closest federal race in Canadian history. We explore how demographic shifts, particularly among rotational workers traveling between Newfoundland and Labrador and Alberta, are gradually reshaping Atlantic Canada's traditionally Liberal voting patterns.
The conversation shifts to Ontario's crucial 905 region, where the once-reliable Liberal "Red Wall" crumbled. Crime emerged as the decisive issue for voters in York and Peel regions, overshadowing affordability concerns that dominated previous elections. Collier provides fascinating insights into how voter demographics shifted, with older voters gravitating toward Carney's Liberals while younger voters and certain immigrant communities moved away from their traditional Liberal support.
We also cover Prime Minister Carney's first face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump, where Carney's firm "never" response to suggestions about Canada becoming the 51st state resonated strongly with Canadians across the political spectrum. This moment of diplomatic assertiveness gives us a glimpse into the new Prime Minister's international approach.
Whether you're a political junkie, a campaign strategist, or simply a curious citizen, this deep dive into Canada's electoral shifts will help you understand the forces reshaping our democracy. Subscribe now for more insightful analysis of the stories behind the headlines.
Quick Heads up: this episode was recorded on April 30, 2025, so while the news may have changed since this conversation was recorded, the thoughts and ideas still remain relevant.
Welcome back to let's Talk Politics. I'm joined once again by Liberal strategist Pierce Collier and we're diving even deeper into the historic 2025 federal election. Today we're breaking down the numbers from coast to coast, from Newfoundland and Labrador all the way through to Southwestern Ontario, and zeroing in on how vote splitting in places like Hamilton and Windsor may have cost the Liberals their majority Plus. We'll get into what happened to the once-solid Liberal Red Wall in the 905, and why York Region and Peel Region took some of the biggest hits. But before we dive into it all, let's hit a few headlines from this past week. Earlier this year, andrew Fury, newfoundland and Labrador's 14th Premier, announced he'd be stepping down as Premier. This announcement came as a shock, especially after just three months of securing a major energy deal with Quebec over hydro for Churchill Falls. Just this week, the Liberals elected John Hogan as Premier Designate, where he won nearly 78% of the vote from registered Liberals.
Speaker 1:Now in federal news, all eyes were on Prime Minister Carney's trip to Washington. Prime Minister Carney had his first face-to-face with the US President, donald Trump. The big topic? Well, tariffs, of course. But let's be honest with Trump, the meeting was never going to stay on topic for long. At one point, a reporter actually asked Trump if he still thought Canada should become the 51st state. And you guessed it. Trump went full salesman. He riffed on everything from free military to lower taxes and even called the Canada-US border an artificially drawn line with a ruler. Carney, the composed negotiator, shot back with a dry smile Canada's not for sale and won't ever be. And when Trump quipped never say never, carney doubled down and simply said never. No matter your political stripes, most agreed. It was one hell of a response. It was firm, respectful and with just enough sass to make Canadians feel as if their prime minister had just body checked the bully at centre ice, politely, of course. Just a quick heads up this episode was recorded on April 30th 2025. So while the news may have changed since then, the ideas still remain relevant.
Speaker 1:Alright, let's get back into the election numbers, the strategy and why Ontario could end up being the real battleground in elections to come. So let's talk politics. So, pierce, you're originally from Newfoundland and Labrador, the infamous rock, so let's start there. I'd love to get your take on the election results in the province, because it was a pretty heated race this time around.
Speaker 1:We saw a wave of change, a lot of new candidates entering the ring and some major names like my old boss, seamus O'Regan and Goody Hutchins deciding not to seek re-election. And then there's Ken McDonald, another big player from the province, who really stirred things up. Home heating was a huge issue on the East Coast, and Ken wasn't shy about breaking ranks. He voted with the Conservatives on repealing the carbon tax more than once, and when things were unraveling inside the Trudeau cabinet, he even signed a letter calling for the Prime Minister to step down. He also didn't rule out a non-confidence vote either, from within the party, no less. So I want to ask you did Carney's move to axe the tax make the difference for voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, or was there something deeper going on in how that electorate responded out there?
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's a good question. So I think axing the tax sort of neutralized the issue. I don't think that we got a whole lot of credit. I mean people knew that it's a liberal party who brought it in. I think maybe some folks gave credit to Carney for canceling it right away. But I think it just sort of served to neutralize that issue, because Polly still talked about the carbon tax and the industrial carbon tax. They tried to make it again In the context of Newfoundland and Atlantic Canada more broadly.
Speaker 2:Home heating is still a big issue because there are a lot of the Atlantic provinces even more so than even like Prince Edward Island. I think something like 50% of the homes still use home heating oil and so we have that significant of population of these provinces who use that type of fuel and seeing how much the carbon tax would be, because home heating oil is like the most expensive way of getting your energy, like it's way more than natural gas, is by far the most expensive way to heat your energy, like it's way more than natural gas is by far the most expensive way to heat your home and unfortunately, a lot of homes still use that in Atlantic Canada. So that's why there was that imperative. Now, like, of course, as you may recall, the Trudeau government did do that carve out for Atlantic Canada, which I think may have helped take some pressure off at that time of the issue there. But it didn't help the carbon taxes case and in the rest of the country who were like, well, the Atlantic is getting a carve out, why are we not getting a carve out? Saskatchewan and Alberta say we use natural gas, why don't we get a carve out? And so I think, was the first undoing of the carbon tax.
Speaker 2:Ken McDonald, I think, is a very savvy local politician. I remember when he was many, many years ago probably I don't know close to two decades he was a counselor in Conception Bay South and he was always sort of a man of the people Everyone is representing people but sort of this mentality of I'm with the people, against the system, kind of thing right. And I remember one instance where the city damaged his fence but the city refused to pay for it. So he paid the guy out of his own pocket and had a media story about it. So he's always been very much a local, focused kind of guy. His writing is one of the few in Newfoundland, probably the only one in Newfoundland that's really a rural urban mix, and so he picked up on something that I think was a very important political issue for people.
Speaker 2:The other thing and I think this speaks to the island more broadly but in the rural areas, people who have to drive long distances they had to pay a lot up front, even if they were getting the money back, and they felt they were being penalized because it's a very rural, isolated. A lot of these communities are isolated, like my hometown, st Albans. We're two hours from the nearest hospital and two hours from the nearest Walmart, nearest service center is, I guess, what I'm trying to say. So if you're doing all that driving, spending a lot more on gas and gas prices are already higher on the East Coast anyway to transport into these communities it's a lot more expensive. So, yeah, there is a different context, I think for Atlantic Canada, but rural Canada in general, this was not a popular tax, and so I think that definitely had some bearing on things, but I think that by the time the election came around, the carbon tax was mostly in the back of people's minds and then the campaign shifted to other things.
Speaker 1:Yeah, good points. I have no connection to eastern Canada but to your point. He's the man of the people and every MP is supposed to represent the voices of their community and he did that and he stood up to the party without any shame in doing it and went out on media and spoke about the issue. So I have a lot of respect for him. He didn't seek re-election, so I think that's a good segue into my next question about only two of the seven incumbent MPs in the province Conservative MP Clifford Small and Liberal Minister Joanne Thompson sought reelection. As we mentioned, a lot of the big heavy hitters did not seek reelection, with the Liberals fielding new candidates in these ridings. Do you think that opened the door for potential flips? Or because Newfoundland and Labrador is such a small, both landmass and population, people know each other very different than something like the GTA? Do you think those voters in those communities, because they have that local connection and know their candidates personally, was enough to maybe stay party loyal and keep that stronghold? I'm curious about your perspective on that.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so very good question. I love this because I love talking about my home province and my home region. I think that there's a few things to consider when it comes to Newfoundland. I think that, yes, local candidates do matter. Name recognition does matter. I think that it matters even more in the smaller communities, where people have more of a connection sometimes with their members, even if they don't know them that well personally, like there's generally more, especially amongst the older folks.
Speaker 2:I remember one of the first elections that I was sort of paying attention to is I think it was 2004. And my mom was going to vote for at that time was our MP. He was a liberal MP and I asked my mom why aren't you voting for the blue team? It was like eight years old why aren't you voting for the blue team? And you know her response was well, I know who Bill Matthews is MP. I know who he is, so I'm going to vote for him, and I think people probably are influenced more by the national trends and the national parties. I think local candidates still matter, but maybe to a lesser extent. So I think local candidates do matter.
Speaker 2:In the East Coast, however and it's a big however I think it is a time of transition in terms of the voting trends in Newfoundland and I think that even during the Harper years, newfoundland always remained red. It's always very few conservatives have had been elected and I think what you saw in this election was a continuation of a trend we saw in the 21 election and even what some may argue the 19 election, where you have a lot of voters who are beginning to go over to the conservatives, who may have traditionally been liberal or came from liberal families. And I think the reason there's a few reasons for that. But one of the reasons for that is that in the ridings, particularly with my home riding, central Newfoundland, that's where Clifford Small is, and in the Long Range Mountains riding, which is where Goody Hutchings was, but she didn't run again there was a new candidate. And also the other riding we held on to by 12 votes in Terranova those three ridings there's a lot of rotational workers, particularly men who are between the ages of 20 and 50. A lot of them who go to Alberta. They're rotational workers. They go out there, they come back. Unfortunately, they begin to hold many conservative views who don't want to pay their taxes and they drive big trucks and didn't like the carbon tax, don't like liberals. There is a bit of a cultural exchange that's happening there and a lot of those workers are coming back and they are voting conservatives and their families are voting conservative, voting liberal, or people who stayed on the island, who continue to live on the island, still vote liberal.
Speaker 2:So those ridings, I think you're seeing that play out and I think that trend started in. Certainly it was big in 21 because Goody Hutchings only won by 1600 votes in 21. Clifford Small won 21 by, I think, 250 votes, 260 votes, and so this election I think you see that trend continue. Where those seats continue to be blue, liberal vote is still significant. They still did well, but you're seeing that transition play out where that's happening. And then, of course, terranova, where it was only 12 votes. So there is a transition in terms of the voting trends on the island and even more, I think, so than the rest of Atlantic Canada, which is a little unfortunate for our party. Like, obviously, as a liberal from Newfoundland, I like when the island goes red and it's the Red Rock. But yeah, these are different times for sure.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I think that's a great segue into my next question. Newfoundland and Labrador represent seven seats in the grand scheme of the House of Commons, but those seats are so, so critical and, as you mentioned, after a lot of waiting, liberal candidate Anthony Germain wins Terranova, the peninsulas, by just 12 votes and I think, just in general that's a small, small margin. That's like 12 doors you didn't knock on and it's so crazy to think this race ended as the most competitive, I think, in Canadian election history. That close margin. What does that tell you about, maybe, how the campaign was run? Or is this the shift? You brought up some of those themes of just how competitive politics and the issues have become.
Speaker 2:Yeah, totally, I think it's a few things. Nick Moody, he ran that campaign and I think if there's one thing he knows how to do, based on the stories I've heard from him and others, is he knows how to get vote out. And so I don't know what the ground game looked like, but I assume that he was very much focused on getting that vote out on that day. And so, to your point, yeah, those are 12 votes that are not in the ballot box. And you know, oftentimes again, going back to advanced polls and all that stuff, I say to people like it's great, when you get a voter, someone tells you they're going to vote for you on the doors, but until that vote gets in the ballot box, it doesn't mean anything. Right, it's like the wind blowing, it doesn't matter, it just simply doesn't matter. So you have to get that vote in the box. And that's why the advance polls, again, super, super critical, because it's basically it's like four election days and then you have your election days, like you basically have five election days. So when you see races like that 12 votes it's likely that they had a good. And again, I don't know this because I haven't spoken to Nick since the election, but I would assume they had a good get out the vote operation there.
Speaker 2:And, to your point, yeah, this is a kind of seat that would have been firmly liberal in the past but again, due to those voting trends that we're seeing the other two seats to the west of that seat going blue because the demographics in Terranova are very similar to the other two that I spoke about go blue. The fact that he was able to fend off that trend is hats off to him and the work that they did there. I think that it's tough with a new candidate. Anthony Germain was a new candidate. He had a bit of name recognition as a journalist, which again is helpful, and that's where those things do come into play Having someone like him versus somebody who absolutely nobody knows. All those factors. When you're talking about 12 votes, all of those factors matter, right, it's everything from the operation to the candidate.
Speaker 1:Everything is critical is critical and shout out to Nick. I'll have to get him on the podcast to hear about how he ran a historic election. I think this might have been his first election as a campaign manager and it's one for the history books for sure. And before we shift out of the province, I want to ask you one provincial question. Back in February, premier Andrew Furey announced he'd be stepping down. What was your reaction to that news and do you think his departure signals a shift again in these political winds for the province?
Speaker 2:Yes, we were all sort of shocked that he announced his departure because he had done a really good job. I mean, he really had, I think, put the province on a good path. He had signed the Churchill deal, which has long been a sore point and I don't have enough time today to go into that issue, certainly, but it had long been a sore point for the province. So he was able to get an agreement on that, which I think was very popular with people and you know, again, it's going back to putting people in charge that know what they're doing. And I think he was very much in the same kind of way that we see Carney. I think people felt the same way about him in the province.
Speaker 2:So't intend to do politics as a career. He's a doctor, he's a medical doctor by his profession and that's what he intends to go back to. It's his passions. I think we can be grateful for the time we had him for. I think it speaks to people like that. Stepping up for public service is exactly what we need and our province needed it very much at the time. So hats off to him and I guess we'll see what comes next.
Speaker 1:Yeah, definitely some big shoes to fill, whoever comes into that position, either as the leader of the party or as the premier. So we'll have to wait and see for that. Bramson has been a federal liberal stronghold since 2015, but we saw some cracks in that red wall following Monday's vote and one of the city's ridings turning blue. Kamala Khaira lost her seat and Ruby Sohota was projected to hold her seat but on election night showed otherwise that it was a very tight race. What do you think happened there? And I know you worked in the region, but any insight you can share on the broader Peel region.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I still don't know exactly what went on in Brampton, because I think the reality is, if you look at the stats, we held pretty well in Mississauga. We held down the fort. We even improved, I mean, compared to the result in Mississauga Lakeshore in 2021, when Spengerman ran, he got 44% of the vote. We were able to get 52. So in Mississauga, we held and did even better in some cases in certain ridings not all of them, but in certain ridings. In Brampton, though, to your point, absolutely Every riding was very tight. We lost our minister from Brampton and all the rest of them were very tight. So I don't really know what went on there other than look. I think two things that I can sort of share. One crime was. It was a major issue. Crime was a major issue for people. It was a major issue in Mississauga, and I think it was equally or even perhaps more of an issue in Brampton, and so I think that people were very disillusioned with the party on crime. I think the plan that Carney announced was really good, but I think we probably needed to do a little bit more around that there in order to firm up some more of that support.
Speaker 2:Secondly, I think maybe there are some assumptions. I think there are changing trends in terms of the demographics who vote for the Liberal Party as well. When you look at the bigger trend, I think that probably applied in Brampton, which is that older, whiter voters came more to the Liberal Party, whereas younger voters kind of went away from the Liberal Party. And Brampton is a place where there's a lot of young families. Even in the past, generally certain communities, like Sikh community in Brampton in particular, would vote for the liberals. I don't know that it's an assumption that we can make that all those folks will just vote for the liberal party. I think those folks are voting for different parties. I think if you look at the candidates who were on the ballot for the conservatives, many of them are from some of these different cultural communities.
Speaker 2:The conservatives, many of them are from some of these different cultural communities and I think that they are bringing in large amounts of support that would traditionally have voted for the liberals. So I think that's sort of the two things. We can't assume that these folks will just automatically vote liberal. We have to re-engage, we have to show we care about the issues, and the issue again in the 905, absolutely in Peel in particular is crime. So we have to do a lot more on that and I think that's why you saw that sort of weakening of support and why it's such a bizarre. I mean, ontario is so full of contradictions in that way, because you saw many of these rural Ontario seats, big swings to the Liberals. Those again are places that are older, whiter, they like Carney, they voted for Carney, but in some of these suburban communities which are younger families, they hit by crime, moving more to the conservatives. So very interesting shifts, very interesting voter shifts there for sure.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and credit where credit's due. I think that was one of the messages that stood strong for the conservatives was the stop the crime message, and we saw that in my next segue to my question here about the York region area. This was also a huge hot topic. A lot of car thefts, a lot of house break-ins. I live in the region so I've seen it firsthand in people on our street. The amount of cop cars. It's wild. We've never seen this before. Huge concern and I remember even that morning at the polls, when the CBC or CTV was interviewing people, that was the first thing that came up. We need to stop the crime, not affordability. There's a lot of other factors to your point. When we look at the affluence of these areas, there are a lot of upper middle class communities. Affordability they could waive the shocks of it, maybe a little bit less than maybe a middle class or lower class communities, but crime is definitely very apparent in that forefront.
Speaker 1:So let's dive into the York region area, two very notable ridings. King Von, which you and I both worked on the campaign there in the 2021 election, remained blue. There was hopes it would flip to liberal and then Von Woodbridge flipped blue. The loss to Francesco Sberra, who was the incumbent. Were you surprised by this? As I just mentioned, wasn't? I think the Conservatives played the long haul game here, where they were constantly in these two ridings to show that they were there, I would even argue, in Anna Roberts' riding of King Von. The Stephen Lecce effect is also a huge factor there. A lot of his volunteers went out to support Anna and campaigned for her. But yeah, more broadly, what were your thoughts on it? Were you surprised or was this something that you expected?
Speaker 2:No, I fully agree with you. I wasn't surprised. I wasn't surprised at all because I think you make a very good point. Look, the Tories put a lot of effort into those ridings and, of course, anna Roberts, as you mentioned, she won in 2021. And since then, I think she's been one of the top fundraisers for the Conservative Party in Ontario. She's raised a lot of money. They've apparently had a very good political operation over the last three and a half years. I wasn't surprised to see her hold that seat at all. I think that, even with the national numbers and being up 15 points at one point according to the pollsters the Liberals being up 15 points in Ontario, I think, notwithstanding that, I think Anna Roberts was always going to win that election. And, to your point as well, she has that backing from Stephen Lecce and just an absolute army of foot soldiers who will knock the doors and drop the literature, make the calls. So I think that, no, I absolutely wasn't surprised with that.
Speaker 2:Francesco Sobara in Von Woodbridge I also wasn't surprised. He lost no-transcript. It was just really significant. And so, yeah, I think the party I mean that scenario. I don't even know, I wouldn't know where to start. I mean that's a lot of vote. That's a lot of vote share that he lost there. I think when you put it all into context, you can understand why those ridings would have remained blue or, in Francesco's case, flip blue when you look at to your point, like the overall York region and the vote decline. I mean Maggiore, who had been there since 2015,. He lost Ray Taylor. Roy lost in Aurora. We had Newmarket Aurora as well. Tony Van Bynum retired but we had a good candidate there. It was a seat we figured we could hold. That one also. We didn't win. So just a really poor showing, unfortunately for us in York region. We had our challenges in Peel. York is really where I think the party has to look at again and figure out what we need to do there to throw back the trust to those voters.
Speaker 1:Yeah, absolutely. The margins were not small compared to 2021. They were very large. So I think the party's going to have to reevaluate, whether it's candidates or strategy on how to get the vote out there and rebuild that trust, and I mean demographically. Again, you can look at it Francesco's riding of Von Wibbridge is sandwiched between two blue ridings. You had Anna Roberts to one side and then you had Mel Lantzman in Thornhill, who's a powerhouse in the Conservative Party. It was really going to be a tough battle regardless. But, yeah, we'll have to see what the next election will hold. As we're talking about ridings flipping, I don't know if this was unexpected, but the Liberals managed to flip Hamilton Center from NDP. Was that in the cards? Did you think that was going to happen?
Speaker 2:So it's interesting because there was some chatter on the campaign that I had heard that we were looking trying to win Hamilton Center and it was about midway through and I was thinking, oh my God, there's no way we're going to win Hamilton Center. And it was about midway through and I was thinking, oh my God, there's no way we're going to win Hamilton Center. It's longstanding NDP and it's a very generally more left-wing area of the city of Hamilton and I thought we should just focus on the other right. I mean just personally thinking, turns out I was wrong. Turns out, yeah, very much that we were in play there and so it was interesting to see, and very much that we were in play there, and so it was interesting to see, and, yeah, it's very cool. Look, I think that anytime we make inroads into these places that we haven't had before is a reason to celebrate, and it was really cool to see.
Speaker 2:On the flip side of that, chad Collins in Hamilton East Stony Creek was a victim of a bit of a split there and I mean the conservatives have come up a lot, unfortunately. You see that provincially and you see that in some of these blue collar areas as well. And just to the point of demographics. Blue collar workers often, predominantly, are those younger men, 20 to 50 range ish around there that many of them are blue collar folks who work in the trade Not stereotype at all, it's just that many of them fit into that demographic Right. Many of them are young men of that age and they've been again more and more going to the conservatives. There's been a lot of courting of the private sector unions, construction unions, being made by the conservatives as well.
Speaker 1:Well, that's a wrap on this episode of let's Talk Politics. A big thank you to Pierce Collier for joining us and sharing his insights on the 2025 election campaign trail. Don't forget to tune in next time. I'll be sitting down with another special guest to dive into the stories shaping our political and economic landscape. I'm your host, Julia Piniella. Until next time, stay informed and stay engaged.